Unintended Consequences as Inspiration for the Crime Writer

Jeff–Saturday

 

Earlier this week, in connection with the release of my latest Chief Inspector Andreas Kaldis novel, I published a more expansive version of this article in CrimeReads.  But as last Saturday’s post commemorated Jeffrey Siger Blatant Self-Promotion Day, I have removed similarly slanted material from this version of that article and added a paragraph or two.

 

We’re all likely aware of examples of the law of unintended or unexpected consequences—when an unforeseen benefit, drawback, or perverse result flows from a purposeful societal policy or individual action.

 

For example, on the benefits scorecard, the longtime pain reliever aspirin gained new purpose when found to help prevent heart attacks, and of course, there’s the blood pressure drug that found an entirely new purpose and worldwide fame as a little blue pill called Viagra.  

 

In the drawbacks category, there are many examples of societies introducing animals or plants for purposes of food (rabbits in Australia), decoration (kudzu in the US), or pest control (European starlings in North America and Cane Toads in Australia), that now terrorize the local flora and fauna.

 

To me, as a crime writer, the most interesting are the perverse.

 

Barbara Streisand once sued someone for posting a photo of her home online. Until bringing that lawsuit only six people had accessed the file (including her lawyers), but the lawsuit triggered 420,000 visits.  It’s now known as The Streisand Effect. 

 

Then there’s The Peltzman Effect, where the introduction of a safety measure encourages some to take risks they would otherwise not undertake but for the confidence gained by complying with the new measure…such as wearing a bike helmet.

 

The Cobra Effect is more diabolical. The story is that when the British faced a plague of deadly cobras in Delhi the government offered a bounty for every dead cobra.  It worked so well that entrepreneurs began breeding cobras just so they could kill them to claim the reward. When the government realized what was happening, it ended the rewards, causing the cobra-breeders to free their snakes, thereby making the situation worse than before the bounty program. 

 

History is replete with seemingly simple solutions to complex problems yielding surprises; at times good, at times not, yet all capable of spawning another serendipity––fertile inspiration for a crime writer’s plots, twists, and characters.  

 

The unintended/unexpected are essential elements of mystery writing, firing up drama and burnishing pace.  The tricky part is finding the right setting for bringing it all together.  On that score I’m blessed to base my work in Greece, for since the days of the ancients, confronting unintended consequences has played a seminal role in Greek life, be it enduring the wrath of the gods, unpredictable nature, plundering pirates, parades of conquerors, wars, plague, or poverty.

 

For my new novel, One Last Chance, I needed a venue capable of supporting a story line driven by unthinkable acts perpetrated by the powerful upon the weak.  To me, place serves not just as a locale, but as a character essential to the telling of the tale.   Place plays a central role in my work, with Mykonos, Athens, Patmos, Mount Athos, Tinos, Sparta, Mani, Delphi, Santorini, Lesbos, and Naxos all having lent their unique magic to Kaldis adventures set in their respective locales.

 

I found what I was looking for in the mountainous, rugged eastern Aegean island of Ikaria–ironically named after the unintended consequence of mythical Icarus perishing off its southern coastline after flying too close to the sun on wax wings.  But that was just the beginning of the island’s experience with unintended consequences. 

 

It’s mountainous rocky terrain, brutal winds, unwelcoming ports, and reputation as the poorest island in the Aegean had it ignored by all except plunderers, forcing Ikariots to endure a rigorous, independent subsistence lifestyle if they wished to survive.

 

And survive they did…in what may be one of the most dramatic unintended consequences of all time.  Ikaria struggled for eons simply to endure, but now boasts an international reputation as one of the world’s five Blue Zones where its hardworking population lives exceptionally long lives–attributed to a subsistence lifestyle built around homegrown produce, goats, olives, homemade wine, fresh air and water, abundant seas, rigorous physical activity, naps, and a decided lack of stress. 

 

Permit me to repeat that last category: a decided lack of stress.

 

Males and females live ten years longer than their compatriots elsewhere in Greece, one in three Ikariots live into their 90s, and many live to be centenarians.

 

Permit me to once again repeat that last category: a decided lack of stress.

 

That’s aspirational, life-changing inspiration if ever I saw it.  I’ve decided to go for it.  Right after I meet this deadline…and the next one.

 

––Jeff

 

 

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Unintended Consequences

The Law of Unintended Consequences states - roughly - that when we tinker with a system, things will happen that we do not expect and often don't like. As a rather trivial example, I recently decided that it would be sensible to cap my data usage with my service provider.  The reason for this is that once I've reached my 5 Gigabyte limit, I start paying something like 15 US cents per Megabyte.  This rapidly runs into hundreds of dollars.  I have the bank overdrafts to prove it.  On the other hand, if one knows that one needs more data than the allowed amount, one can buy a "bundle" for much less money - say $10 a Gigabyte. The unintended consequence of this decision is that I've had no data at all for the last week.  The reasons are boring and relate to the vagaries of my service provider, but the point is that I certainly didn't want or expect that to happen!

Robert Merton is credited with formalizing the concept in a paper in 1936. He listed the following points:

1. Ignorance, making it impossible to anticipate everything, thereby leading to incomplete analysis
2. Errors in analysis of the problem or following habits that worked in the past but may not apply to the current situation
3. Immediate interests overriding long-term interests
4. Basic values which may require or prohibit certain actions even if the long-term result might be unfavorable (these long-term consequences may eventually cause changes in basic values)
5. Self-defeating prophecy, or, the fear of some consequence which drives people to find solutions before the problem occurs, thus the non-occurrence of the problem is not anticipated.

I'm not sure I understand all of this, but then I don't pretend to be a sociologist.  In my experience, the Law is usually at its most potent when the object of the said tinkering is a good and humane one. Perhaps just not well thought through.

We recently had an example here in South Africa.  One of the scourges of the undeveloped world is the trafficking in children.  The details vary from one situation to the next, but it  amounts to slavery.  Sometimes the parents are complicit, sometimes the children are simply stolen.  Sometimes the children are forced to work, sometimes they are used for sex.  There is absolutely no doubt that everything possible should be done to end these foul practices. Often trafficking involves moving kids across borders, and this is apparently relatively easy to do one by one with an adult in charge. 

Last year South Africa, in an attempt to support initiatives to prevent child trafficking, introduced new requirements for anyone travelling with a child under the age of eighteen into and out of the country.  Essentially, the adult with the child must be able to produce an original unabridged birth certificate.  Why this is harder to fake than the necessary travel documents, I'm not sure.  What it does mean is that every tourist coming to South Africa with a family needs to produce a full birth certificate for each child. And the consequence of that is that many tourists see it as too much trouble and go elsewhere.  Tourism to South Africa is down some 20% year on year costing the economy some $100 million.

Of course one also needs to be careful of confusing cause and effect.  There are other reasons for the fall.  One is the lingering concern that everywhere in Africa is an ebola risk. (I think there have been more cases in the US than in South Africa.)  Another is the weakness of the world economy.  Nevertheless, the government here is sufficiently concerned to have appointed a commission under the deputy president to look into the matter.

By the way, unintended consequences don't need to be unpredicted.  The government was warned about the possible impact on tourism at the time it introduced the regulations, but decided to ignore it.

I guess the way of dealing with the Law is to use the carpenter's motto: Measure three times, cut once.

Michael - Thursday