Michael - Thursday
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| Cyril Ramaphosa |
Last month
saw a momentous event in South Africa, one that hopefully broke the
downward spiral course on which the ruling ANC under its leader, Jacob Zuma, had set the
country. Actually, the real event took place in December when rather
unexpectedly, and by the smallest of margins, the ANC chose Deputy President Cyril
Ramaphosa as its new leader over the old guard’s favored candidate Nkosasana Dlamini-Zuma—one
of the merry ex-wives of Zuma and an obvious surrogate for the kleptomaniacal Zuma/Gupta
axis (sometimes joking referred to as the Zuptas).
I share the broad enthusiasm for Ramaphosa, although I doubt that all will be well overnight. I had the pleasure of meeting him when we
both served on the Council (governing body) of the University of the
Witwatersrand - I as an elected member of the academic staff and he as a
nominated member from the Chamber of Mines. His interventions at meetings were
thoughtful, relevant, and free of political cant. If it was appropriate, he
would offer solutions consistent with his approach rather than offer objections
without alternatives. Of course, it’s a
long way from being on a university council to running a country, but he certainly has the skills.
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| Ramaphosa holds up the constitution of South Africa |
Ramaphosa
studied law at the University of the North (he would have been denied entry to
Wits at the time as a non-white) and joined the trade union movement,
eventually initiating the National Union of Mineworkers. He rose in the ranks
of the union movement, which was one of the mainstays against apartheid
internally in South Africa. Eventually he led the United Democratic Front, the
heart of that movement. He worked as hard as anyone, always at personal risk
because he chose to stay in South Africa and not escape to exile in the north.
When the white regime decided to negotiate, he was one of the lead
negotiators. The tenets of the constitution show his hand.
Although he
was close to Nelson Mandela personally, he did not have quite the same charisma
as the exiles or the members of the ANC who had shared Mandela’s imprisonment
on Robin Island, and when Mandela stepped down, the mantle passed to Thabo
Mbeki. Ramaphosa decided to combine the waves of support for his contribution to
the new society with the new black empowerment initiatives to become an
investor and businessman. Unlike many
others who followed the same route but added little or no value, his investments
were careful and well managed. Over the years, he became one of the richest men
in the country.
Nevertheless,
he kept his connections with the ANC and worked hard for it in various roles.
When Mbeki was invited to leave—having alienated many of his supporters with
his aloof intellectualism and killed many with his AIDS denialism,
Ramaphosa stood back. Jacob Zuma took over to start the downward spiral. He wasn’t an
AIDS denialist, but was so ignorant that having slept with an HIV positive woman
(who then accused him of rape), he explained that he wasn’t concerned about catching the
disease because he’d "taken a shower afterwards". (This was immortalized in every
subsequent Zapiro cartoon featuring him.)
Ramaphosa
has baggage too. He was deputy president for Zuma’s second term, and accepted
the party view, only publically criticizing the president’s appalling behavior
when it was clear that much of the party’s leadership had turned against him.
He was involved on the company side of the awful Marakana strike, and accused
of complicity in the police massacre of the strikers. And as a parting gift from
Zuma, he was presented with ANC policy of acquiring land for landless black
people without paying compensation to the current owner.
Land reform
is a huge issue throughout sub-Saharan Africa, and it has been poorly handled
in most places. Certainly, Zimbabwe is the classic example - white
farmers were dispossessed in order to be replaced either by government cronies,
or by ill-equipped peasants who were left without support or
infrastructure. South Africa has not done well either, and the issue is less to
do with compensation and more to do with ministerial incompetence and lack of
commitment.
"President
Ramaphosa reaffirmed that accelerated land reform will unfold within a clear
legal framework and without negatively affecting economic growth, agricultural
production and food security," the presidency said yesterday.
This will
take all of Ramaphosa’s negotiating skills. The ratings agencies are watching
the new administration like hawks; so far it is being given the benefit of the
doubt. Wealthy people are waiting to see which way the dice will roll. The
leftwing EFF opposition made broad land reform their key policy before the ANC did, and will push hard from
the left. The Democratic Alliance (official opposition) will push hard from the
other direction. And the constitution will need to be changed, an issue which
makes practically everyone uncomfortable. Zuma’s parting gift was a poisoned chalice
indeed.
