A good election in South Africa, but with wrinkles

Stanley – Thursday

Overall the municipal elections in South Africa last week were very successful.  Or were they?

First, people really paid attention.  Nearly 58% of eligible voters went to the polls (which is more than the last US Presidential election – 54%, and way more than the 2014 US elections – 37%).  From what I read, there was very little intimidation of voters around the polling stations and people were free to vote however they wanted.

Second, for the first time since 1994 (the year democracy came to South Africa), significant numbers of people cast their votes based on the past performance of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) rather than on loyalty to the ANC because of its role in the anti-apartheid struggle.  A few years ago, when I questioned a black friend about why she continued to vote for the ANC when its service delivery was so bad and when its leader was so obviously corrupt, she replied that she would always vote for the ANC as long as Nelson Mandela was alive – that it would be a dishonor to him to do otherwise.  Mandela died in December 2013.

Green: ANC; blue DA; other colours: minority parties

The ANC has been the dominant party since 1994, consistently gathering well over 60% of the popular vote.  It is only in the Western Cape that the major opposition party (the Democratic Alliance – DA) has had any success.  It has dominated the province and has also governed Cape Town, which has the reputation of being the best run city in the country.

In this election, the ANC lost about twelve percent of its support, ending with about 54% of the popular vote.

Why the change?  Three things were major contributors to the losses the ANC suffered.  President Zuma is seen as corrupt, as are many senior officials, like mayors, who drive around in expensive cars while their constituents see no improvement in their impoverished lives; service delivery in ANC controlled areas is abysmal; and the ANC is increasingly seen as arrogant.  Added to this, the two main opposition parties have strengthened their appeal - for very different reasons. The DA under its new appealing leader, Mmusi Maimane, has wooed voters by saying that the areas it controls are well run; the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) has mobilized the most disadvantaged voters through the Leninist policies and charisma of its leader, Julius Malema, who is a brilliant orator, but frightening and corrupt.

President Zuma

 

Firebrand Julius Malema

After the election, Cape Town remains in DA hands.  More importantly three other major cities gave the DA the most votes, although not an absolute majority.  These are Nelson Mandela Bay (the old Port Elizabeth), Tshwane (the old Pretoria), and Johannesburg.  Talks are underway as we speak to see what coalitions can be negotiated to run these cities.  Losing these three metropolises was a huge blow to the ANC, particularly Nelson Mandela Bay and Tshwane, where previous ANC majorities were big.

Mmusi Maimane and Cape Town mayor Patricia de Lille

I can’t wait so see how the coalitions end up working, because there are no natural allies amongst the three major parties.  I’m hoping that the ruling coalition will end up being between the unlikely partners of the DA and EFF.

Not everything was good about the elections, however.

For example, the election season was not without violence.  It is estimated that twelve candidates for various offices were killed in the run up to the election.  From what I have read, it appears that most of this was intra-party violence rather than between parties.  For example, there was rioting in the Tshwane area after the ANC offered as its candidate for mayor someone from out of town.  The locals wanted a local man to be their candidate, and took to the streets.  One person was killed, and arson and looting ensued.

Rioting in Tshwane

Also, in a bizarre move, the national television company, the SABC, stopped showing any scenes of violence.  The head of the SABC, a close ally of the embattled President Zuma, said it wasn’t in the interests of voters to watch such things.  The opposition immediately challenged the censorship in court, arguing that the SABC was being used by the government to prevent voters from seeing how widespread the disaffection with the ANC was.  A spokesman for the ANC surprisingly also accused SABC of censorship. 

The opposition won and the SABC was told to show the news. 

My take on the whole elections was that it was a significant one, where many voters freed themselves of the shackles of feeling obliged to vote for the ANC.  What the opposition cities do between now and the national elections in 2019 will have a huge impact on whether the ANC takes another hit.  The results will also cause the ANC to take stock and rid itself of its corrupt and self-serving officials.  It would be crazy not to do so.

And now I can focus on another election coming up.  Yuk!

Shoot the boer

South Africa has been glued to the TV this week, watching an important trial whose outcome has the potential to have unpleasant ramifications no matter what the verdict.

Julius Malema

The trial is about whether a song sung by anti-apartheid groups before democratic change came to South Africa in 1994, can now be construed as a hate song. The head of the African National CongressYouth League (ANCYL), Julius Malema, has been taken to court by the Afrikaner group, AfriForum, to stop him singing the struggle song Dubul'ibhunu, translated as "Shoot the Boer". Afriforum claims that the song incites Blacks to act against White Afrikaners, using as part of its evidence the thousands of mainly Afrikaner farmers who have been murdered since 1994. Malema and the ANCYL claim that the song is part of the heritage of the struggle against apartheid and should be allowed – that the words are symbolic and not intended to be taken literally.

At face value the trial is about the inevitable clash between freedom of expression and hate speech – not a new clash by any means.

Armed bodyguard

What makes this trial out of the ordinary is the personality of Julius Malema, his bravado, his contradictions, and his influence.  JuJu, as Malema is known, has a very confrontational style.  For example, the he continued to sing the song despite a high court interdict that called on him not to do so. And when he arrived for this trial in the Equality Court, he arrived wearing a snappy white suit with Winnie Mandela on his arm, and a bodyguard toting semi-automatic weapons surrounding him.  After the end of one day’s proceedings, he went outside and sang to the melody of the song in question the words “Shoot to kill, kiss the boers.”

To this observer, JuJu’s style is designed to rally the many jobless people in South Africa by insinuating that the problems of the country are easily solvable if ….

…if the mines are nationalized, for example.  Not in itself an idea without merit – why should a country not benefit to the maximum from its own resources?  But it easier to shout ‘nationalize the mines’ than it is to put in place a mechanism to make the mines work under a national oversight.

…if you redistribute the land, which could only happen by amending the Constitution’s willing buyer, willing seller position.  Obviously the more wealthy people (predominately White) in South Africa are particularly sensitive to this because of the total fiasco of land distribution in Zimbabwe under Robert Mugabe.  Some of the continents most productive agricultural land was given to Mugabe supporters who had no farming skills whatever.  From an exporter of food Zimbabwe became a nation of hunger.

…if you have more babies.

…if you lower the unemployment rate.

And so on.  What is particularly amazing to me is this man of the masses lives the high life, with expensive cars, expensive property, etc., but is still the hero of the masses.

Many Whites regard Malema as an idiot.  He is far from that, but many of his pronouncements and his style frighten them.  And if more Whites decide to emigrate, there is a good chance investment in South Africa could slow down, which would put more people out of work (currently unemployment is between 25% and 30%).

So in a sense what should be a freedom of expression versus hate speech trial, has become a platform for much broader political issues.

What concerns me is what may happen after the trial.  If JuJu loses, he is not going to sit down and accept the verdict meekly.  If he wins, not only will the Afrikaners fear that his supporters will take the song seriously, but he is likely to become more confrontational, just when accommodation is needed.

While all of this is taking place, local elections are around the corner.  And for the first time, voters are questioning the ruling African National Congress party's ability to run towns and cities efficiently.  Endless gatherings are happening to protest lack of basic services, to protest corruption.  I think the monolithic ANC may lose many municipalities.  Good for democracy, I think, but I wonder how the ANC supporters will react.

We’re in a fascinating and pivotal period in South Africa’s political history.  Watch this space.

Stan - Thursday