My head is spinning. I mean as in The Exorcist big time head spinning.
Anxiety over what will happen to their country is front
and center on every Greek’s mind. It’s
been that way for quite some time, though only reluctantly verbalized. A sense of fait accompli, nationalism, denial, or some other coping device may
have contributed to hesitancy at expressing such thoughts to outsiders, but that’s
no longer the case; many now openly share their doubts, concerns, and fears.
Just this week The
New York Times published a photo
essay with quotes from residents of Hydra, an island close by Athens. I found it sad, but accurate. Few see a happy ending anytime soon, only a choice
between bad and worse.
As I said, sad.
I saw a quote in another NY Times article a few days back attributed to the head of a
European think tank commenting on the EU’s attitude toward Greece: “‘If it were not for the geopolitical
context,’ Mr. Lafond said, ‘they would have let them leave long ago.’”
Sadly, I think he’s right. And in that rests what is emerging as the
most likely scenario for Greece.
It seems that every political pundit, economist,
journalist, TV commentator, and blogger has hit the keyboards with
prognostications and predictions on where Greece is headed and its implications
to the world. I bet folks are playing
the odds in Vegas on the outcome—they certainly are on the Athens stock market
in a manner generating such wild swings with every pronouncement on the subject
by a government minister that were it a US market, the SEC would be up to its
eyeballs in investigations.
But that’s a subject for another time.
So, what do I see as the likely outcome?
Well, for a while I saw a contender for the title of “most
likely scenario” being Greece’s Prime Minister announcing he’d fought the good
fight against the western hordes, but in order to save his country he reluctantly
had no choice but to accept the “odious” terms and give in to the demanded
reforms. It would involve him charging forward on a white stallion away from
his far left party roots to emerge as the leader of a new centrist
government.
But that fairy tale seems over. It would require the
Prime Minister to ostracize the extremists in his party and he’s shown no
willingness to do so.
Which brings me to where I see things headed….
Assuming this grand kabuki theater of under-a-deadline
negotiations continues to drag on…and that seems likely with further talks
adjourned until today…I think we’ll see the West throwing up its hands and
adopting an approach that keeps a lid on things, doing only what’s minimally
necessary to protect its geopolitical interests.
In other words, keep the patient on life support. Give Greece what it needs not to default on
its interest payments, allow the Greek government to claim victory for domestic
purposes, and let the new government’s policies run their course on the people
who elected it. If the West truly
believes that its proposals are better for Greece in the long run than the Greek
government’s approach, that’s the West’s smartest play, for it allows Greece to
fail to emerge from crisis by reason of its own choices, serving as a stark
warning to any EU member state that might otherwise be tempted to consider
adopting Greece’s policies and negotiating tactics.
It’s not a pleasant outcome, and one I pray doesn’t
happen, but it’s how I’m seeing things today.
Or at least this morning, in sunny beautiful Greece—where tourists are,
and will undoubtedly remain, blissfully unaware of all of this.
By the way, to end on a lighter note, does the world
know that obviously separated-at-birth siblings, IMF Chair Christine Lagarde
and Greece Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis,
have a sister?
Jeff—Saturday
