two weeks to go

                                       

I once had a strange friend, a professional guitarist, who would play 'Observant Bob ' ( that's a game not a piece of music). He would stand in the street and point at something on a nearby rooftop. He would then wait until a crowd had gathered to see what he was looking at, then he would walk away. This is an example of 'social proof' and maybe has a lot to do with the recent Spiral of Silence blog. It can also be called the herd instinct i.e. the more people follow a behaviour then the more appropriate this behaviour seems to be. Obviously in the past it was a useful survival tool.  If a tribe of Scotti Ancientius are doing a wee bit of roaming in a gloaming and suddenly they all turn left and run away up the nearest glen, chances are it’s because they have seen a large male spiked toothed haggis approaching from the right. Anybody who didn't turn left and leg it would be haggis poo  the next day.

                                    
                                                     Yip, this blog is going there....

You are probably all familiar with the experiment carried out by psychologist Solomon Asch. He was the one who drew three lines on a piece of paper ( two the same length, one longer) and a student was asked which two are the same length.  On a one to one basis the student always gets it correct. When five other people enter the room and say that two un-matching lines are actually matching, the student, in more than 30 % of instances will change his mind to an incorrect answer.  Social proof is responsible for stock market panic, the evils of fashion, religion.  You only have to look at the craze of diets; Scarsdale, F plans, 5 to 2s, Atkins, juicer diets which all ignore the simple premise that you need to eat slightly less calories than you use up! Social proof at its most extreme is responsible for the Jim Jones type of mass suicide. 

It can have its positive effects though if you are in a strange city looking for food you just head for a restaurant that is busy with locals.

The advertising industry manipulates social proof very well. They tell you that a product is better because more people use it. Which is obviously  not true. 

Somerset Maugham’s wise words were “if 50 million people say something foolish, it’s still foolish”. If you don’t buy L’Oreal shampoo is that because you think you’re not worth it? 

                                                 
                                                      Alex, leader of the Nats.
                                       It's rumoured he wants to become King Of Scotland

It can also lead to phrases making their way into the consciousness when the phrase itself can be nebulous, the actual meaning of the phrase remains vague.  The one we were taught in school was the phrase 'the Irish question' which was a political football but the actual question itself was never truly defined. It could be argued the phrase 'weapons of mass destruction' was banded about as a reason for going to war.  It’s also starting to creep in to the debate on Scottish independence.
                                           
                                    Alistair Darling. Owner of the best eyebrows in the campaign.
                                                            He leads- Proud to be Scot,
                                                                  Delighted to Be united.


The phrase 'it’s the right thing to do' is the battle cry of the Independents but not really backed up by any evidence as to why it is 'the right thing to do'.  The leader of the Church of Scotland warned people on the news this morning to stop their bullying tactics and there is a sense that the vote is starting to divide the country, divide families and ruin friendships.

                                            
                                                       Nicola Sturgeon. Known as Helmet Hair.
                                                                Very small person.
                                                      EvKa and JeSi can now make jokes about fish.

I might be biased but to me, most of the bullying tactics are from the yes camp. The accusation of being unpatriotic falls easily from their lips. And can lead to a smack in the chops.  So as well as dissolving the UK we are in danger of dissolving ourselves as the nation that is Scotland.  It’s less than two weeks to go to the vote and I think most sensible folk are sick to the back teeth of it which is a terrible thing to say about the most important decision that Scotland has made for the last five hundred years. We are fed up being told nothing factual,  and any debates simply come down to who can shout the loudest.  Nobody seems to know if we can stay in the EU, Fish quotas, Farming subsidies, nobody knows what currency we are using, nobody knows if we are responsible for any of the national debt of Great Britain and when asked those pertinent questions they will just be told 'it’s the right thing to do'.  

I did an event last week and at the end the interviewer asked me if I was a yes or no. I just mentioned the fiscal uncertainty and that while I was proud to be a Scot I would be delighted to stay united.

I felt a wave of hatred rush down from the audience.   At the after do soiree with warm Prosecco and unidentifiable small munchy things, a man come up to me and give me a piece of his mind which was a shame as I don’t think he had any to spare.
                                                     

  He started off by saying that for the first part of the talk he thought I was quite an intelligent young woman.   (how easily fooled!) He then asked me about the colour of the blood in my veins before giving me a two and a half minute rant about independence and its people like me who let the side down and he seemed to have a lot of pride in the fact he taught himself Gaelic as 'Scotland needs to push itself forward on the world stage'.
There is no logic in that statement so don't try to find any.

                                                               
                                                                   Sensible Scottish Person with smart jacket on.

While I was thinking venous blood is a slightly darker red than arterial blood and if you are trying to push yourself forward in the world why don’t you learn Spanish,  I was on the edge of smirking as the scene was so ridiculous - this was real finger pointing in the face stuff. But his very insular way of looking at the world is quite worrying. However, in a moment of huge personal triumph I managed to wait until he had to draw breath ( he was producing a lot of hot air ) then I muttered the name of the great Scottish philosopher David Hume (pic above) and said that we, as an nation hold very dear to our hearts the right of freedom of speech and the right to have our own opinion.  At that moment I managed to walk away in my four inch stilettoes without falling over, spilling the Prosecco or dropping my small unidentified vegetable on its bed of puff pastry. If I had really thought about it I would  have incorporated a Miss Piggy hair flick
                                              

We have two weeks to go. I hope we survive.  Before somebody gets punched.

Caro Ramsay 05 09 2014

The Independence Debate

There are trying times ahead.

                                     

At least until the 14^th September – then heavens alone knows what will happen.

That is the day of the referendum to decide Scotland’s future - whether we should go ahead as an independent nation or stay as part of the United Kingdom.

                                       

The arguments are in polar terms; the Braveheart vote OR the economic vote….

Scotland joined with England in an Act of Union (1707). They didn’t invade us and take over – well not on that particular occasion. It was beneficial financially to both parties and we have rubbed along, annoying each other ever since.

The deep rooted issue is that Scotland is a much more socialist country than England - far removed from those in the south, we would never vote for a Conservative government but often end up being ruled by one.  As I have said before we have more pandas than Tory MP’s. It’s the  gulf between us and the shiney/Etonian/gentlemen’ club that run Westminster. But many would argue that we act as an anchor on England drifting too far to the right.

                                                

 But I do know that we (Scotland in its current devolved state) is a pretty froody place to live. Free education right through university with many preschool places partially paid for by employers’ vouchers. A country who's health promotion campaign is so well regarded that both China and Russia sent a delegation here just last week, as whatever we are doing, it is working and the degree of underage smoking and drinking is falling. Admittedly, the level was very high to start with. Our health service is free, totally free. We don’t even pay for the prescription – never mind the drugs, the treatment, the hospital bed.  Our health boards outperform those in the south.  A free aggressive screening programme for breast and bowel cancer is available population wide.

                                        

                                                                The economist

Our immigrant community is well integrated (maybe because we are still suffering the effects of sectarianism, or because we know we are a mongrel race ourselves). Our legal system is very different, some say far superior, to England.

And if it didn't rain in Scotland for the next 100 years, we would still not run out of water. And if water is the new oil……

                                           
                                 To boldly go where no accent has gone before... 

We have loads of the wet stuff. And we are still world leaders in forensics, engineering, medicine.  As well as producing loads of really famous dudes that I won’t bore you with (again).

                                 

And we pay tax at 20%. It’s a beautiful country. When you can see through the rain.

I am writing this to reflect the views of those I have spoken to this week ... re what are you feelings about it so far? (Sadly no cheesecake involved in this research).
The answers were not 'yeses' and 'noes' as you might think but more 'I’m fed up of the whole thing already.'  To quote one senior businessman, ‘The only question is who to shoot first once I’ve put the whole lot of them against the wall.’
He was joking.
I think.

The problem is that the more we ask, the more we realise that nobody seems to know much about it. There’s a lot of feeling that we are making it up as we go along. The yes campaign say that this is because ‘Westminster’ are simply not giving answers so there is no definitive way forward.  The no (Better Together) campaign says that it’s up to the independence campaign to come up with the answers.

                                    

Here’s a potted example of the confusion .

This came to light three weeks ago. The yeses seem to have believed that we could still use the pound as currency in some kind of joint monetary system.  Westminster pointed out that this will not be so, basically go and find your own currency if you feel that way about it.  One SNP then said, well if you feel that way about it, we will walk away from our portion of the trillion pounds plus worth of debt.  (It was handbags at dawn). Or as one commentator put it, like two old fishwives having a shouting match down the close. The SNP then accused Westminster of being bullies.
There was a similar reaction when Westminster pointed out the rules for the EU state that a nation has to be independent for four years (I think) before it can apply to join.  And then it will be forced to use the euro but as no currency union is allowed we need to use another currency in the meantime.  That’ll be three changes of currency in four years.

My head hurts.

The latest thing is Alex Salmond, SNP Leader, saying that all kids should have free school meals. The council say they can’t afford it –they are being subjected to extreme cutbacks due to the economic downturn. So it has been reported Salmond says he will fine them if they don’t…

The council pointed out that they couldn't afford that either.

                                              

I spoke to a pal who is retired from BAA and is in receipt of a big pension. BAA is of course British Aerospace. He told me the company has not informed them what will happen to their pension if it has to be converted from one currency to another. And then another.

Big companies are now ‘threatening’ to pull out if independence goes ahead. And I can understand that as err… we will have no currency! Shareholders are sensing the instability and will vote to move and there’s nothing the Scots can do about it. It was also pointed out that banks, by EU regulation, have to locate their head offices in the country where their gold reserve is and where the greatest population of customers are. That’ll be goodbye to Royal Bank Of Scotland then!

                                            

The leader of the SNP, Alex Salmond, introduced voting for the 16-18 year olds for the referendum, thinking that they would automatically vote yes. Some thinkers say that the majority of the youth ‘yes’ comes from families where there is no voting tradition.   So that remains to be seen.

The oil debate is a huge argument for independence, but there’s only 20 years worth left and it is becoming more and more difficult to get at. It’s American money that gets it out the ground.  We keep getting told to look at Norway… but they pay tax at 37%. And have a great sense of civilian ship that we just don't have. You can’t even put Glasgow and Edinburgh crime writers in the same room without them arm wrestling! 

The nationalists want the nuclear threat taken away - the bases are 40 miles from Glasgow- or as far away from Westminster as they could get. Most sensible folk would agree to get rid of anything nuclear… but how many jobs would go? The Ministry of Defence? The Army?

Figures out today show that our (Scotland’s) debt is growing.

The devolution max vote was another option to go on the polling card… simply more autonomy than we have now. But that was ruled out, it’s a straight yes or no.

Some have pointed out that the rest of the UK should be able to vote also – to get rid of us.

And my head still hurts. Just thinking about it, we still have another six months of will we, won’t we, to go.

                                      
                                                    The Guardian

Here is a joke - A Scot and Englishman and an Irishman were washed up on a desert island. The Englishman built a church, the Scot built a pub and the Irishman started a fight with himself on the beach.  Three years later the Scot has a chain golf clubs and the Irishman is still fighting with himself but is now in the pub. The  Englishman is still ignoring them both as they have not yet been formally introduced.

Anyway, how do I persuade my London based agent that I should not be treated as an overseas author and pay her a higher % in the event of a Yes result.  Maybe I should tempt her with cheesecake and fine wine…

                                                 

Looking globally, at all that is going on in the world, I think this country (either country, all four countries...) could move forward better without drawing any more lines in the sand.

Caro  14/03/14  GB for now